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Learning how to avoid drafting a player who is being heavily over-drafted might be the most important skill to acquire when drafting a fantasy team every year. My last article looked at players who have been drafted high and lived up to expectations and also, players who were drafted late and outperformed their ADP. However, there is one more type of player that I will expound upon in this article. It is the player who is overhyped and over-drafted but leaves every fantasy owner wondering what went so wrong at the end of the year. Technically, I am categorizing all these players as busts even though some of them just finished the year outside of the top 10. I will not be including players who missed 4 or more games due to injury, suspension or other reasons.
Let's get into it shall we
Quarterbacks
2015 QB with top 10 ADP + Outside Top 10 finish (2/10)
Finish Positional ADP rank Round Drafted
19. Matt Ryan QB8 7th Round
24. Sam Bradford QB10 7th Round
4 players excluded due to injury
2016 QB (4/10)
Finish Positional ADP rank Round Drafted
17. Cam Newton QB1 3rd Round
18. Ben Roethlisberger QB7 6th Round
19. Carson Palmer QB8 7th Round
22. Eli Manning QB 10 8th Round
1 player excluded due to suspension.
2017 QB (4/10)
Finish Positional ADP rank Round Drafted
15. Matt Ryan QB4 5th Round
19. Derek Carr QB6 7th Round
18. Marcus Mariota QB7 7th Round
22. Jameis Winston QB8 7th Round
1 player excluded due to injury.
2018 QB 3/10
Finish Positional ADP rank Round Drafted
14. Tom Brady QB3 5th Round
13. Cam Newton QB6 6th Round
12. Kirk Cousins QB7 7th Round
2 excluded due to injury.
2019 QB 3/10
Finish Positional ADP rank Round Drafted
20. Baker Mayfield QB4 6th Round
11. Matt Ryan QB5 6th Round
13. Jared Goff QB8 7th Round
2 excluded due to injury.
16/50
Accuracy of ADP (Difference between ADP and finish)
2015 Net = -25
2016 Net = -50
2017 Net = -49
2018 Net = -23
2019 Net = -27
Combined Net = -174
Average = -34.8
Key Takeaways:
- 32% of the time a top 10 ADP QB has busted
- Matt Ryan has busted 3 times in the past 5 years. He is over-drafted almost every year based off a couple really good seasons'. Mostly due to his MVP season in 2016. However, if you can draft him really late, its worth it.
- Every year there has been at least one QB who is either hyped up without even one breakout season under their belts or they comes out of nowhere and have a really good season and are subsequently drafted high the next year. In 2015, it was Sam Bradford. He finished the year 14 spots lower than his ADP! He is the classic case of being overhyped without any past play on the field to back it up. Prior to 2015 he had never thrown for 4000 yards in a season and his career high in passing TDs in a season was 21. For some reason people thought that him going to the Eagles should warrant a top 10 QB draft selection. Oh how they were wrong. In 2016, it was Carson Palmer. He threw for 35 TDs and 4671 yards in 2015. By far his best season in his 14 year career. However, in 2016 he was 37 years old but that didn't stop him being drafted as the 8th QB off the board. Palmer was a shaky and inconsistent QB his entire career. He threw 187 INTs in 181 games started. That's alot. To put that into perspective, Aaron Rodgers has started 174 games in his career but with only 84 INTs thrown. Rodgers is the king at not throwing interceptions but still that's over 100 more INTs in almost the same amount of games. The point I am trying to make with this is that too often people get tricked into believing in a QB based off of recency bias from the past season. We try to bank on last season as a start of a breakout but doing that is never worth the draft capital you have to spend, especially for the QB position. Same thing with Marcus Mariota in 2017, Kirk Cousins in 2018 and Jared Goff in 2019. These QBs didn't posses the upside to be worth spending a 7th Round pick on. The 7th round is that classic grey area for drafting a QB. All the QBs I just mentioned had an ADP in the 7th round and 8 out of the 16 busts had a 7th round ADP. You will only find value in drafting a potential breakout QB if you guess correctly before they do it. And the best place to guess is in the double digit rounds where you really have nothing to lose and everything to gain.
Running Backs
2015 RB with top 10 ADP + outside top 10 finish 4/10
Finish Positional ADP rank Round Drafted
32. Eddie Lacy RB3 1st Round
31. CJ Anderson RB6 1st Round
20. Jeremy Hill RB8 2nd Round
15. DeMarco Murray RB9 2nd Round
4 excluded due to injury
2016 RB 2/10
Finish Positional ADP rank Round Drafted
15. Todd Gurley RB2 1st Round
19. Lamar Miller RB4 1st Round
3 excluded due to injury
2017 RB 4/10
Finish Positional ADP rank Round Drafted
13. Devonta Freeman RB4 1st Round
36. Jay Ajayi RB7 2nd Round
20. DeMarco Murray RB8 2nd Round
14. Jordan Howard RB9 2nd Round
1 excluded due to Injury
2018 RB
0/10
3 excluded due to injury/suspension/holdout
2019 RB 3/10
Finish Positional ADP rank Round Drafted
37. David Johnson RB6 1st Round
16. Le'Veon Bell RB7 1st Round
14. Todd Gurley RB10 2nd Round
1 excluded due to injury
13/50
Accuracy of ADP (Difference between ADP and finish)
2015 Net = -72
2016 Net = -28
2017 Net = -55
2018 Net = 0
2019 Net = -44
Combined Net = -199
Average = -39.8
Key Takeaways:
- 26% of the time a top 10 ADP RB has busted
- RBs have busted fewer times than QBs but bust by a slightly larger margin than QBs
- 7 different RBs have busted with a 1st round price tag to their name. There has been at least one 1st round bust every year except for 2018. It will be interesting to see if there will be another this upcoming season. That can absolutely crush your team when your 1st round pick can't even finish the year in the top 10 at their position. Let's take a look at what similarities and trends are attached to each of these players: Lacy, Anderson, Gurley, Miller, Freeman, Johnson, Bell.
I am going to group Bell and Gurley together and attribute their lack of success to the failures and flaws of the offense they were in in those specific years. Good thing to remember is if you are deciding between multiple RBs in the 1st round, go with the guy who is on the best offense. It's all about avoiding risk in the 1st round and going with the player who has the least amount of variables that can go wrong. I am going to group Lacy, Anderson, Miller, and Freeman together and attribute their failures as a 1st round selection to a lack of transcendent talent. All of them have had success in the NFL at some point in their career but none of them have had even 1 eye-popping season. I'm talking about a season with at least 1300 rushing yards. Out of those 4 guys, Lacy is the only one to top 1100 rushing yards in a season. The other 3 have never even hit the 1100 mark before. I know in fantasy you are always hoping that you are drafting the player who is going to breakout and have a massive season, but the talent has to be there in order for that to happen. We almost get pressured into thinking that we must draft a RB in the 1st round but sometimes it backfires hard. A player like Lamar Miller should never have been drafted in the 1st round. So when the elite of the elite RBs go at the beginning of the 1st round, its wise to consider the option of taking an elite WR instead of opting for a lesser RB because you feel like you absolutely need a RB in the 1st round. Lastly, David Johnson was just not right last season. I'm going to leave it at that.
Wide Receivers
2015 WR with top 10 ADP + outside top 10 finish 5/10
Finish Positional ADP rank Round Drafted
11 Demaryius Thomas WR4 1st Round
12. Calvin Johnson WR6 2nd Round
25. Randall Cobb WR7 2nd Round
13. Brandin Cooks WR9 2nd Round
22. T.Y. Hilton WR10 2nd Round
1 excluded due to injury
2016 WR 4/10
Finish Positional ADP rank Round Drafted
26. Deandre Hopkins WR5 1st Round
24. Allen Robinson WR6 1st Round
49. Brandon Marshall WR7 2nd Round
39. Dez Bryant WR10 2nd Round
2 excluded due to injury
2017 WR 5/10
Finish Positional ADP rank Round Drafted
17. Mike Evans WR4 1st Round
46. Jordy Nelson WR6 1st Round
15. Brandin Cooks WR8 2nd Round
24. Dez Bryant WR9 2nd Round
36. Amari Cooper WR10 2nd Round
1 excluded due to injury
2018 WR 1/10
12. Keenan Allen WR6 2nd Round
2 excluded due to injury
2019 WR 2/10
25. Odell Beckham Jr. WR7 2nd Round
15. Mike Evans WR8 2nd Round
4 excluded due to injury and 1 due to suspension/released
17/50
Accuracy of ADP (Difference between ADP and finish)
2015 Net = -47
2016 Net = -110
2017 Net = -101
2018 Net = -6
2019 Net= -25
Combined Net = -289
Average = -57.8
Key Takeaways:
-34% of the time a top 10 ADP WR has busted
- WRs have busted the most and by the largest margin out of all 4 positions
- WR position is the most volatile position when it comes to busts. In 2017 there were 5 busts in the top 10 and their net difference between ADP and finish was -101. Then, just one year later in 2018, there is only 1 bust by a difference a -6. That just doesn't seem possible. When highly drafted WRs don't live up to expectations, it tends to go very bad. This is why it is never worth it to gamble on a WR who isn't locked and loaded as an elite WR in the 1st 2 rounds of the draft. The reward is just not worth the risk when it comes to WRs. However, players like Julio Jones and Antonio Brown have delivered year after year in the past 5 seasons. They have been worth the 1st and 2nd round price tags because of their consistency and quality of play in the past. More things will always go wrong with WRs because they are completely dependent on the ability of their QB passing them the ball. Also, WRs are just simply the most expendable position because multiple WRs can achieve success in the same offense. Sometimes it's almost impossible to predict which WR on specific teams will pop from week to week. This makes the WR position the most difficult position to draft for me personally.
Tight Ends
2015 TE with top 10 ADP + outside top 10 finish 2/10
Finish Positional ADP rank Round Drafted
27. Jordan Cameron TE6 7th Round
21 Owen Daniels TE8 8th Round
2 excluded due to injury
2016 TE 3/10
Finish Positional ADP rank Round Drafted
15. Coby Fleener TE6 7th Round
18. Gary Barnidge TE7 7th Round
12. Antonio Gates TE10 9th Round
2 excluded due to injury
2017 TE
0/10
4 excluded due to injury
2018 TE 3/10
Finish Positional ADP rank Round Drafted
11 Rob Gronkowski TE1 2nd Round
12. Jimmy Graham TE4 5th Round
15. Jordan Reed TE10 8th Round
3 excluded due to injury
2019 2/10
Finish Positional ADP rank Round Drafted
29. OJ Howard TE4 5th Round
30. Vance McDonald TE8 7th Round
2 excluded due to injury
10/50
Accuracy of ADP (Difference between ADP and finish)
2015 Net: -34
2016 Net: -22
2017 Net: 0
2018 Net: -23
2019 Net: -47
Combined Net = -126
Average = -25.2
Key Takeaways:
- 20% of the time a top 10 ADP TE has busted
- TEs have busted the fewest amount of times and by the smallest margin
The TE position is the most contradictory position. It has by far the lowest bust rate in the top 10 but also has the highest amount of undrafted players finishing in the top 10 which I mentioned in my last article. The position contains two extremes. On one end you have the top tier TEs that are basically guaranteed to finish the year in the top 5 barring any serous injuries. Then, on the other end, every year since 2015 there has been at least 1 undrafted TE who decides that its their time to shine. Morale of the story: don't draft a middling TE half way through the draft. Chose one of the extremes. Either pay up for one of the guarantees like Kittle and Kelce, or wait till the absolute end of the draft for a TE like Waller.
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