QB Fantasy Finishes vs ADP 2020 -2024

It's that time again. We have 5 new seasons of data to decipher since my last article of this kind back in 2020. I am determined to find new insights on comparing players' average draft position to their fantasy finish. We all feel constrained to ADP every season. However, players always finish in places we could never expect going into the season. The Quarterbacks will be part one of three articles that will all tie into each other. All data is half-point PPR from FantasyData and FantasyPros. Let's dive in.

Players who are highlighted green: outperformed relative to their ADP

Players who are highlighted red: underperformed relative to their ADP

Players who are underlined: Top 12 ADP and Top 12 finish

QB 2020 Finishes QB 2020 ADP

1 Josh Allen 1 Patrick Mahomes

2 Aaron Rodgers 2 Lamar Jackson

3 Kyler Murray 3 Dak Prescott

4 Patrick Mahomes 4 Russell Wilson

5 Deshaun Watson 5 D. Watson

6 Russell Wilson 6 Kyler Murray

7 Ryan Tannehill 7 Drew Brees

8 Tom Brady 8 Tom Brady

9 Justin Herbert 9 Matt Ryan

10 Lamar Jackson 10 Josh Allen

11 Kirk Cousins 11 Aaron Rodgers

12 Matt Ryan 12 Carson Wentz

6 finished higher than their ADP

4 finished lower than their ADP

2 finished the same as their ADP

9 of the top 12 drafted QBs finished the year in the top 12

Ryan Tannehill, Justin Herbert, and Kirk Cousins were the 3 QBs that finished top 12 while being drafted outside of the top 12

QB 2021 finishes QB 2021 ADP

1 Josh Allen 1 Patrick Mahomes

2 Justin Herbert 2 Josh Allen

3 Tom Brady 3 Kyler Murray

4 Patrick Mahomes 4 Lamar Jackson

5 Aaron Rodgers 5 Aaron Rodgers

6 Matthew Stafford 6 Dak Prescott

7 Dak Prescott 7 Russell Wilson

8 Joe Burrow 8 Justin Herbert

9 Jalen Hurts 9 Tom Brady

10 Kyler Murray 10 Matthew Stafford

11 Kirk Cousins 11 Ryan Tannehill

12 Ryan Tannehill 12 Jalen Hurts

7 finished higher than their ADP

4 finished lower than their ADP

1 finished the same as their ADP

10 of the top 12 drafted QBs finished the year in the top 12

Joe Burrow and Kirk Cousins were the 2 QBs that finished top 12 while being drafted outside of the top 12

QB 2022 Finishes QB 2022 ADP

1 Patrick Mahomes 1 Josh Allen

2 Josh Allen 2 Patrick Mahomes

3 Jalen Hurts 3 Justin Herbert

4 Joe Burrow 4 Lamar Jackson

5 Geno Smith 5 Kyler Murray

6 Justin Fields 6 Jalen Hurts

7 Trevor Lawrence 7 Joe Burrow

8 Kirk Cousins 8 Tom Brady

9 Daniel Jones 9 Aaron Rodgers

10 Jared Goff 10 Russell Wilson

11 Justin Herbert 11 Dak Prescott

12 Tom Brady 12 Matthew Stafford

9 finished higher than their ADP

3 finished lower than their ADP

6 of the top 12 drafted QBs finished the year in the top 12

Geno Smith, Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence, Kirk Cousins, Daniel Jones, and Jared Goff were the 6 QBs that finished top 12 while being drafted outside of the top 12

QB 2023 Finishes QB 2023 ADP

1 Josh Allen 1 Patrick Mahomes

2 Jalen Hurts 2 Josh Allen

3 Dak Prescott 3 Jalen Hurts

4 Lamar Jackson 4 Lamar Jackson

5 Jordan Love 5 Joe Burrow

6 Brock Purdy 6 Justin Herbert

7 Jared Goff 7 Justin Fields

8 Patrick Mahomes 8 Trevor Lawrence

9 C.J. Stroud 9 Deshaun Watson

10 Baker Mayfield 10 Dak Prescott

11 Tua Tagovailoa 11 Tua Tagovailoa

12 Trevor Lawrence 12 Aaron Rodgers

8 finished higher than their ADP

2 finished lower than their ADP

2 finished the same as their ADP

7 of the top 12 drafted QBs finished the year in the top 12

Jordan Love, Brock Purdy, Jared Goff, C.J. Stroud, and Baker Mayfield were the 5 QBs that finished top 12 while being drafted outside of the top 12

QB 2024 Finishes QB 2024 ADP

1 Lamar Jackson 1. Josh Allen

2 Josh Allen 2. Patrick Mahomes

3 Joe Burrow 3. Jalen Hurts

4 Baker Mayfield 4. Lamar Jackson

5 Jayden Daniels 5. C.J. Stroud

6 Jared Goff 6. Anthony Richardson

7 Bo Nix 7. Joe Burrow

8 Jalen Hurts 8. Kyler Murray

9 Sam Darnold 9. Jordan Love

10 Kyler Murray 10. Dak Prescott

11 Justin Herbert 11. Brock Purdy

12 Patrick Mahomes 12. J. Daniels

8 finished higher than their ADP 

4 finished lower than their ADP

7 of the top 12 drafted QBs finished the year in the top 12

Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, Bo Nix, Sam Darnold, and Justin Hertbert were the 5 QBs that finished top 12 while being drafted outside of the top 12

Key Takeaways

Only 39 out out of the combined 60 QBs with a top 12 ADP over the last 5 seasons actaully finished the year as a top 12 QB. Consequently, there has been 21 QBs who have finished as a QB1 without being drafted as a QB1. This trend is especially revealing in the past 3 seasons where only 21 out of the 36 combined QBs with a top 12 ADP finished in the top 12 at the position. This terrifies me. If you miss out on one of the elite QBs who have high rushing upside and the ability to finish as the overall QB1, you might as well punt the position. Odds are you will be able to find one of the QBs who outperform their ADP at the end of the draft or on the waiver wire throughout the season.

One QB who has been a very interesting pick over the past 5 seasons has been Patrick Mahomes. While he has been drafted and finished as a top 12 QB each of the past 5 years, he has failed to live up to his ADP 4 of the last 5 seasons. A big reason for this has been his lack of rushing upside and how well the Chiefs defense has been the last 5 seasons. When looking at QBs, the opportinity cost is such an important aspect. If you draft a QB early, you need him to exceed or even finish as the overall QB1 in order to make it worth it. The cost is missing out on a high quality RB or WR who could help you win a championship.

One more surprising trend and over the past 3 seasons has been the high bust rate of QBs with an ADP of the QB 5 - 12 range. Of the 24 QBs drafted in that range over the past 3 seasons, a staggering 15 of those 24 QBs failed to finish as a top 12 QB. You're essentially throwing away that pick if you drafted one of those 15 QBs. This stat ties in perfectly to what I stated earlier. Either let one of the elite QBs who you think can finish as the QB1 fall to you in the draft, or completely punt the position.