Feels Good to be Right Once in a While

I made a take back on December 18th, 2020. I predicated that Deebo Samuel would be the steal of fantasy football drafts in 2021. I never publicly posted the take. I thought that now would be the perfect time to share my predication. My short article on Deebo Samuel is in an email thread just in case someone wants to see the evidence on when it was written. Let's take a look.

Deebo Samuel will be the steal of drafts in 2021

Deebo Samuel is easily one of my favorite players heading into 2021 because of one main reason, his cost. Deebo will be an extreme value next year because of the combination of 3 different factors: 1. His injury history 2. The 49ers offense is a run-heavy offense 3. Brandon Aiyuk had a breakout rookie season. These factors will prevent any hype around Deebo going into the 2021 season. If you project Deebo's 2020 stats over the course of a full season he would've finished with 1042 receiving yards on 88 catches. That would've been good enough for a top 24 WR finish in 2019. That's while fighting multiple injuries throughout the year and with Aiyuk breaking out. I project Deebo to have an ADP somewhere between rounds 6-7 in 2021. At that ADP he will be an absolute steal because he has the floor of a WR2. That's extremely difficult to find in rounds 6 and 7. I'll admit his lack of touchdowns does limit his upside, but his high floor and consistent play each week will be a blessing for fantasy owners.

Furthermore, he's matchup proof because he isn't a prototypical WR1 on his team. This means he won't get shadowed by the opposing team's best corner. He gets the ball around the line of scrimmage and racks up yards after the catch similar to a RB. In the 6 games where he played in full, he had 398 YAC (yards after the catch). You just have to get the ball in his hands and he will do the rest. It doesn't matter who's throwing him the ball or who is matching up against him on defense. Kyle Shanahan will find creative ways to get the ball in Deebo's hands throughout 2021.

Deebo was better than good in 2021. He finished as the WR3 as a dual-threat weapon. Not only did he have 1405 yards and 6 TDs through the air, but he finished with 365 yards and 8 TDs on the ground as well. He actually might become a triple-threat weapon since he decided to pass for a TD in week 18. The man can really do it all. In my league of record I drafted him in the 9th round. Drafting him at that value easily made him the MVP of my squad. Unfortunately it still wasn't enough to secure a championship as I lost in the Finals. However, I am still able to gloat about my correct prediction on Deebo. My take was definitely one of a kind as Deebo became an afterthought with all the Aiyuk hype prior to the 2021 season. I am looking forward to writing about who will be my steal of drafts in 2022. So please, do yourself a favour and stay tuned in. Goodness awaits.

Yours Truly,

The Big O