RB Fantasy Finishes vs ADP 2021 - 2025
It's time for running backs! We now have fresh data from the 2025 season to dive into. Again, the whole point of these articles to do understand why certain players and positions are drafted the way they are. Also, to figure out how to avoid busts and find value later in drafts. Key takeaways will be at the end of the article. Here we go!
All data is half-point PPR from FantasyData and FantasyPros. Let's dive in.
Players who are highlighted green: outperformed relative to their ADP
Players who are highlighted red: underperformed relative to their ADP
Players who are underlined: Top 12 ADP and Top 12 finish
2021 Finishes 2021 ADP
Jonathan Taylor 1. C. McCaffrey
Austin Ekeler 2. Dalvin Cook
Joe Mixon 3. Derrick Henry
Najee Harris 4. Alvin Kamara
James Conner 5. Ezekiel Elliott
Ezekiel Elliott 6. Nick Chubb
Leonard Fournette 7. Aaron Jones
Alvin Kamara 8. Jonathan Taylor
C. Patterson 9. Saquon Barkley
Antonio Gibson 10. Austin Ekeler
Nick Chubb 11. Najee Harris
Aaron Jones 12. Antonio Gibson
4 of the top 12 ADP finished higher than their ADP while 8 finished lower
7 of the top 12 ADP finished in the top 12 while 5 failed to return a top 12 finish
4 players had a top 12 finish while being drafted outside the top 12
above 500: 9 below 500: 3
Top 5 all on teams above 500
9 out of the top 12 had 50 plus targets
2022 finishes 2022 ADP
Austin Ekeler 1. Jonathan Taylor
C. McCaffrey 2. C. McCaffrey
Josh Jacobs 3. Derrick Henry
Derrick Henry 4. Austin Ekeler
Nick Chubb 5. Dalvin Cook
Saquon Barkley 6. Najee Harris
Tony Pollard 7. Joe Mixon
Jamaal Williams 8. D'Andre Swift
Aaron Jones 9. Aaron Jones
Dalvin Cook 10. Alvin Kamara
R. Stevenson 11. Saquon Barkley
Joe Mixon 12. Nick Chubb
3 of the top 12 ADP finished higher than their ADP while 7 finished lower and 2 the same
8 of the top 12 ADP finished in the top 12 while 4 failed to return a top 12 finish
4 players had a top 12 finish while being drafted outside the top 12
above 500: 7 below 500: 5
Top 2 on above 500 3-5 below 500
9 of top 12 had 50 plus targets
2023 finishes 2023 ADP
C. McCaffrey 1. C. McCaffrey
Raheem Mostert 2. Austin Ekeler
Travis Etienne 3. Bijan Robinson
Breece Hall 4. Saquon Barkley
Joe Mixon 5. Nick Chubb
Kyren Williams 6. Tony Pollard
Rachaad White 7. Derrick Henry
Derrick Henry 8. Josh Jacobs
Bijan Robinson 9. Najee Harris
Jahmyr Gibbs 10. Travis Etienne
James Cook 11. R. Stevenson
Saquon Barkely 12. Joe Mixon
2 of the top 12 ADP finished higher than their ADP while 9 finished lower and 1 the same
6 of the top 12 ADP finished in the top 12 while 6 failed to return a top 12 finish
6 players had a top 12 finish while being drafted outside the top 12
above 500: 8 below 500: 4
4 of the top 5 on teams above 500
9 of the top 12 had 50 plus targets
2024 finishes 2024 ADP
Saquon Barkley 1. C. McCaffrey
Jahmyr Gibbs 2. Breece Hall
Derrick Henry 3. Bijan Robinson
Bijan Robinson 4. Jonathan Taylor
Josh Jacobs 5. Saquon Barkley
De'Von Achane 6. Jahmyr Gibbs
Kyren Williams 7. Travis Etienne
James Cook 8. Derrick Henry
Jonathan Taylor 9. Kyren Williams
Alvin Kamara 10. De'Von Achane
James Conner 11. Josh Jacobs
Chase Brown 12. Isiah Pacheco
6 of the top 12 ADP finished higher than their ADP while 6 finished lower
8 of the top 12 ADP finished in the top 12 wile 4 failed to return a top 12 finish
4 players had a top 12 finish while being drafted outside the top 12
above 500: 7 below 500: 5
4 of the top 5 on teams above 500
6 of he top 12 had 50 plus targets
2025 finishes 2025 ADP
C. McCaffrey 1. Bijan Robinson
Jonathan Taylor 2. Saquon Barkely
Bijan Robinson 3. Jahmyr Gibbs
Jahmyr Gibbs 4. C. McCaffrey
De'Veon Achane 5. Derrick Henry
James Cook 6. Ashton Jeanty
Derrick Henry 7. Josh Jacobs
Chase Brown 8. De'Von Achane
Kyren Williams 9. Jonathan Taylor
Travis Etienne 10. Bucky Irving
Javonte Williams 11. Chase Brown
Josh Jacobs 12. Kyren Williams
5 of the top 12 ADP finished higher than their ADP while 7 finished lower
9 of the top 12 ADP finished in the top 12 while 3 failed to return a top 12 finish
3 players had a top 12 finish while being drafted outside the top 12
above 500: 6 below 500: 6
only 1 of the top 5 on teams above 500
9 of the top 12 had 50 plus targets
Combining everything over the last 5 seasons!
20 out of the combined 60 players with a top 12 ADP over the past 5 seasons finished higher, 37 lower, 3 the same
20 higher, 37 lower, 3 the same
38/60 players drafted with a top 12 ADP finished in the top 12
22/60 players drafted with a top 12 ADP failed to return a top 12 value
21 players had a top 12 finish while being drafted outside the top 12
above 500 teams: 37 below 500 teams: 23
top 5 finish 16/25 above 500 teams
top 5 finish 9/25 on below 500 teams
Top 5 ADP finishing lower than their ADP 20/25, 9 out of those 20 failed to even finish as a top 12 back
Top 5 ADP and finish 9/25
The 21 players with a Top 12 finish + ADP outside of Top 12
2021 - Joe Mixon, James Conner, Fournette, Patterson
2022 - Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard, Jamaal Williams, Stevenson
2023 - Raheem Mostert, Breece Hall, Kyren Williams, Rachaad White, Gibbs, James Cook
2024 - James Cook, Alvin Kamara, James Conner, Chase Brown
2025 - James Cook, Travis Etienne, Javonte Williams
2021
RB3 Mixon drafted RB13 - 292 carries, 13 rushing TDs, 48 targets, above 500 team
RB5 Conner drafted RB36 - 202 carries, 15 rushing TDs, 39 targets, above 500 team
RB7 Fournette drafted RB32 - 180 carries, 8 rushing TDs, 84 targets, above 500 team
RB9 Patterson undrafted - 153 carries, 6 rushing TDS, 69 targets, below 500 team
2022
RB3 Jacobs drafted RB22 - 340 carries, 12 rushing TDs, 64 targets, below 500 team
RB7 Pollard drafted RB35 - 193 carries, 9 rushing TDs, 55 targets, above 500 team
RB8 Williams drafted RB57 - 262 carries, 17 rushing TDs, 16 targets, above 500 team
RB11 Stevenson drafted RB36 - 210 carries, 5 rushing TDs, 88 targets, below 500 team
2023
RB2 Mostert drafted RB39 - 209 carries, 18 rushing TDs, 32 targets, above 500 team
RB4 Hall drafted RB17 - 223 carries, 5 rushing TDs, 95 targets, below 500 team
RB6 Williams drafted RB70 - 228 carries, 12 rushing TDs, 48 targets, above 500 team
RB7 White drafted RB26 - 272 carries, 6 rushing TDs, 70 targets, above 500 team
RB10 Gibbs drafted RB13 - 182 carries, 10 rushing TDs, 71 targets, above 500 team
RB11 Cook drafted RB23 - 237 carries, 2 rushing TDs, 54 targets, above 500 team
2024
RB8 Cook drafted RB14 - 207 carries, 16 rushing TDs, 38 targets, above 500 team
RB10 Kamara drafted RB17 - 228 carries, 6 rushing TDs, 89 targets, below 500 team
RB11 Conner drafted RB19 - 236 carries, 8 rushing TDs, 55 targets, below 500 team
RB12 Brown drafted RB37 - 229 carries, 7 rushing TDs, 65 targets, above 500 team
2025
RB6 Cook drafted RB13 - 309 carries, 12 rushing TDs, 40 targets, above 500 team
RB10 Etienne drafted RB31 - 260 carries, 7 rushing TDs, 52 targets, above 500 team
RB11 Williams drafted RB41- 252 carries, 11 rushing TDs, 51 targets, below 500 team
7/21 250+ carries
10/21 double digit rushing TDs
14/21 50+ targets
14/21 above 500 teams
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Every season, players finish the year very different to how they are drafted. Never be scared to think outside the box in regards to ADP. Use ADP as insight versus your league mates in your draft on when to reach on players and when to wait on value.
This stat was shocking - 20 out of 25 RBs with a Top 5 ADP ended up finishing lower than their ADP, 9 out of those 20 failed to even finish as a top 12 back - the 9/20 is the part that is so scary. It shows that no player is a guarantee, no matter their draft capital.
No matter how you slice it, it's safer to side with a RB who is on a good team and good offense - 37/60 of the combined top 12 on an above 500 team - 16/25 Top 5 finishers on an above 500 team - 14/21 of the players with a Top 12 finish + ADP outside of Top 12 on an above 500 team. Of course they are always RBs on a terrible team who can volume their way to a great year. But in terms of probabilities, side with an RB on a good team.
Continue to target pass catching RBs. 70% of the top 12 RBs in the last 5 seasons have seen 50+ targets.
ADP range of RB8 to RB12 has been great value. 16 out of the 25 RBs drafted in that range have outperformed their ADP and 1 stayed the same. That's an incredibly high hit rate for that range.
RBs get to a top 12 finish in very different ways. Mostert - RB2 with 18 rushing TDs. Hall - RB4 with 95 targets - White 272 carries and 70 targets while only scoring 6 rushing TDs.
I hope y'all enjoyed! Till' next time, The Big O
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