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Every year come draft time you have to split hairs when deciding between two incredibly closely ranked players. How do you decide between two talented players like D'andre Swift and Cam Akers? Should you try to differentiate them by looking at the amount of volume they'll receive or the quality of the team/offense they are on? At the top end of the draft all players are very talented so you have to look at different factors like situation and volume. I'm going to touch on situation by simply looking at how much does being on a good team/offense affect a running back's fantasy finish. I'm going to start by throwing some data at you. Below are the top 12 RB finishers since 2016. They are represented by their RB finish and then categorized by the record of their respective team.
2016 Top 12 RBs
500 and above: 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 11. 12.
Below .500: 1. 4. 7. 9. 10.
2017 Top 12 RBs
.500 and above: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11.
Below .500: 9. 12.
2018 Top 12 RBs
.500 and above: 1. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 11.
Below .500: 2. 3. 9. 10. 12.
2019 Top 12 RBs
.500 and above: 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 12.
Below .500: 1. 6. 7. 9. 10.
2020 Top 12 RBs
.500 and above: 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10.
Below .500: 3. 7. 11. 12.
Right after I looked at the numbers I wanted to see the total amount of top 12 finishers since 2016 that were on a team with a record below .500. Surprisingly, 21 out of 60 were on below .500 teams. That's over one third at 35%. Every year it always feels like you have to avoid RBs on bad teams but that's not the case at all. The #1 overall RB was on a below .500 team twice in the past 5 seasons. That's bonkers. Below .500 teams are usually porous on defense thus leading to a negative game script for the running back. However, that reasoning is not foolproof anymore since RBs have become much more involved in the passing game in the past 10 years. Christian McCaffrey and David Johnson were the two RBs that finished #1 on a below .500 team. DJ had 879 receiving yards in 2016 and CMC had 1005 receiving yards in 2019! Sheer volume and usage in the passing game truly allows a RB to be very successfully on even a terrible team. Look at James Robinson for example. The man was on a 1-15 team and he finished the year as the RB7. He was able to do by carrying the ball 240 times and receiving 60 targets as a rookie. Fellow rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire on the other hand finished as the RB22 on the best team in the NFL last year. He had 181 carries and only 36 targets.
Always look at potential volume and usage in the passing game rather than getting sucked into the sparkle of owning a RB on a special offense. A talented RB on a great offense will never be a value in the draft because everyone will be expecting big things from them. However, there will always be RBs that will slip in drafts because they aren't on an exciting offense. The difficult part is actually hitting on the correct RB that will surprise everyone. Don't hear what I'm not saying; the quality of a team's offense (especially offensive line) is an important factor when deciding between RBs. Just don't make it the singular deciding factor.
So.....Akers or Swift. Akers feels safer because Sean McVay and the Rams offense has produced the RB1 twice in the past 5 years. The Lions well, have not. However, Swift is an exceptional pass catcher as he had 46 receptions compared to Akers' 11 in 2020. Akers is a dynamic player so he will be used more in the passing game in 2021. I've found myself leaning towards Akers because the upside feels greater. Ah but Swift will have to carry this offense because of the lack of weapons in Detroit which is not the case in LA.
I can't decide. I'll have to think on it.
Until next time.
Yours Truly,
The Big O