Mid-Season Review Part 2

Part 2 is here and little overdue. There are still a number of topics I still want to touch on. Half way through the season I love to look back on the draft to see where I went wrong and how to learn from any mistakes I made. I always have to be careful about hindsight bias and not being too hard on myself, which I admit, is a difficult thing to avoid. Some events that occur throughout the duration of an NFL season are impossible to predict and thus should be accepted and moved past from. Injuries are a perfect example of this. JuJu is a prime example because of how high he was drafted. Now it's not because he has been injured, rather it was his starting Quarterback. This is the problem with Wide Receivers; they have double the amount of injury risk compared to a running back. When a running back's starting Quarterback gets injured, they almost always retain production if not increase production because they become more heavily utilized in the offense. You do have to take in consideration how talented the backup quarterback is for the given team. When we saw Drew Brees suffer a hand injury in week 2 versus the Rams, it was Teddy Bridgewater's opportunity to step in and keep the Saints afloat. Teddy is by far one of the better backup Quarterbacks in the league and he proved that by going 5-0 in all 5 games he started.

The whole point of my telling this is to show the reason why Michael Thomas was still very successful in the 5 games he was missing his starting Quarterback. Mike had 551 receiving yards and 3 TDs in that stretch which is quite remarkable. Wide Receivers just have more variables than running backs because they rely so heavily on another player; their QB to give them quality passes. I'm not saying it doesn't pay off to draft superstar wide receivers early in the draft, but rather to understand that there is a larger range of outcomes with wide receivers than running backs. Superstar runnings backs are so much more valuable and have a higher point total than Wide Receivers every year for the past 3 years which is why getting a stud running back in the first round is such an advantage. Mike Evans is the WR1 right now with 136 points. There are 7 running backs with 136 points or more with CMC leading the way with a whopping 224.5 points. Right here is why the standard snake draft is broken. Being stuck with a draft spot at the end of the first round is such a disadvantage because you completely miss out on the elite running backs that win leagues for teams. Even being at the turn with back to back picks doesn't make up for the value missed at the top of the first round. To me, this why auction drafts are the most ideal format because everyone has a chance at every player at the beginning of the draft.

I want to touch on another player that has become a massive disappointment this year, my boy Joe Mixon. I was extremely excited about Mixon's potential coming in to the 2019 season ever since he lead the AFC in rushing last season. The talent has never and will never be the issue with Joe. However, there are two other issues that you have to consider every time you draft a running back, Situation and Opportunity. Coming into the year, Mixon had the talent and opportunity but his situation around him was always a concern. The Bengals and especially his offensive line have been an absolute mess this year. Not receiving adequate blocking and facing a negative games script basically every game can cancel out talent and decrease rushing attempts. Consequently, this leaves you with a running back that no has nothing going in his favour. This is precisely the source of the frustration a Mixon owner has dealt with all year long. In fantasy, Opportunity is king but the situation a player is in may be even more valuable. Therefore, when looking to draft a running back in the future you have to understand which out of the three components does the player posses and how the combination adds up. For example, a player that possesses high Talent, Opportunity, and Situation is obviously the best choice (i.e. Dalvin Cook). Just Talent and Opportunity, which has been Mixon's case, is not enough. Also, just Talent and Situation (i.e. Miles Sanders) will also result in frustration and a lack of consistent points every week. However, Situation and Opportunity is the only combination where just two of the components can still yield a productive fantasy player every week. Two players come to mind: LeGarrette Blount in 2016 and Damien Williams in 2018.

In 2016 Blount had 18 rushing TDs for the Patriots. This resulted in him finishing the year as the RB 6. He had a career high 299 rushing attempts but it resulted in a poor 3.9 yards per carry. Opportunity was obviously there and so was a great situation in a New England offense. Blount has always been a decent back but never talented enough to dominate year after year and ever carry an offense by himself. In 2018 Damien Williams gave us a very short sample size because he only started 3 games. However, in those 3 games he was the featured back in a dynamic chiefs offense. This resulted in him finishing those 3 games with combined 322 total yards and 4 total TDs. These performances won many owners a championship including myself. Now, Williams is in his 6th year in the NFL and he has 1042 career rushing yards to date. His career resume so far is not even remotely enough to classify him as a talented NFL running back. Both of these players are amazing examples of what an NFL running back can do with high Opportunity and a positive Situation.