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Let's start with the negative here. Every year in fantasy football there are a handful of players who appear at first glance to be producing at a high level. However, these players can turn out to be a mirage and destroy your chances to hoist the championship trophy at the end of the fantasy season. I'm not saying don't draft these players. Rather, use caution when draft day arrives. Let's dive into 3 players who stats were deceiving last year and where you should draft them this year.
*Analysis is based on a standard scoring 10 team league
Derrick Henry
Ah here we go with Henry again. Last year was supposed to be his big year with Demarco Murray retired and all and it kind of was. But it also kind of wasn't. He finished as the RB13 last year with 1059 rushing yards and 12 rushing TDs. However 55% of those rushing yards and 58% of those touchdowns came in the last 4 weeks of the NFL season. That's over 50% of his production coming from just one quarter of the season. In fantasy consistency is king and even though in this case Henry did come through for managers in the fantasy playoffs, the majority of fantasy managers dropped, traded, or benched him by the time he actually did anything. Another thing to take into consideration when drafting Henry is game script. The Titans haven't found themselves leading big in any games because of the recent play of Mariota and a coaching staff that hasn't properly utilized their playmakers on both sides of the ball. This has lead to negative game scripts for Henry where Mariota has been forced to throw the ball which hasn't recently been a good thing for the Titans if you know what I mean. (Last 2 seasons Mariota has thrown 24 TDs and 23 INTs) Right now Henry's ADP is at the beginning of the 3rd round as the RB14 which may seem like decent value for a RB as skilled as Henry, who happens to be entering a contract year. I believe he is being over-drafted and I would take a chance on him at the beginning of the 4th round and no earlier as my RB3/Flex just because of how physically dominating he is. Look at this man compared to Saquon...
Unfortunately, Marcus Mariota and the Titans offense continues to disappoint year after year, so beware.
Jordan Howard
Through 3 seasons of playing in the NFL Howard has put up some impressive stat totals. He has rushed for 3370 yards and 24 rushing TDs with 2435 of those yards and 15 of those TDs on a Bears squad which had a combined record of 8-24 over
the 2016 and 2017 seasons. The problem with JoHo is his rushing yards per attempt and rushing yards per game have significantly decreased every year. In 2016 he had a Y/A of 5.2 and a Y/G of 87.5. Then they dropped to 4.1 and 70.1 respectively and now last year to 3.7 and 58.4. As a young developing running back those stats should be increasing each year not the opposite. Also, JoHo has never been any real threat in the passing game which is such a crucial asset for running backs to have in today's modern offense. All of the top fantasy running backs right now have developed into monsters in the passing game which keeps them on the field for every down. From watching JoHo over the years, the eye test has shown that he has never been a shifty, skilled, or fast running back with breakaway speed. His ADP is currently the 8th round. At this point in the draft you want to start looking at high upside players who have a chance to break out. JoHo is not that guy.
Calvin Ridley
Let's be real, Calvin was an incredible college prospect and had a breakout rookie season with the Falcons. There's no denying his talent and ability to blow up every Sunday. The reason he is in this section is to prevent you from reaching on Calvin. When looking at the numbers, it's easy to get lulled into the fact that he was the WR18 last year when he racked up double digit TDs. The part that scares me is that 6 of those TDs came in 3 consecutive weeks (Weeks 2,3,4). Calvin's consistency rating was terrible last year because after those 3 beautiful weeks he gave you some stinkers. In 8 of the last 11 weeks of the fantasy football season, he scored less than 5 fantasy points. Yeah, he burned me too many times. This was a result of the fact that he only had 821 receiving yards and 51.3 Y/G which is not bad for a rookie by any means. But, once the TDs disappeared he didn't have enough yards to soften the blow. There is also a guy called Julio down there in Atlanta who ate up a 28.1% target share last year while Calvin had about half that at 15.2%. As long as Julio is still a Falcon, Calvin will have to deal with the fact that Matty Ice loves tossing the ball in Julio's direction a whole bunch and who can blame him. Right now Calvin's ADP is in the middle of the 6th round as the WR21. This feels about right to me except the fact that he is one spot ahead of Cooper Kupp who was immensely more consistent before going down with a torn acl. Jared Goff loves to spread the ball around while Matt Ryan has tunnel vision for Julio. The Rams offense doesn't have a true number 1 wideout right now which is why Kupp is a more intriguing option to me than Calvin.
Now for the good news. Here are 3 players whose 2018 stats put them under the radar but got me believing in 2019.
Kenny Golladay
Kenny G also known as Baby Megatron is one of my favourite players heading into this season. He is built to be a number 1 wideout and has the talent to go along with it. Not only does he have the perfect QB in Matt Stafford who helped make Calvin Johnson a fantasy superstar by always having the belief that Calvin would win any 50/50 ball he threw to him but he has the best chance by far to gobble up the 69 vacated targets that Golden Tate left behind before being traded to Philly. Tate had those 69 targets over 7 weeks which equates to roughly 10 targets per game. We already saw Kenny G benefit from the departure of Tate in the latter half of last season. While Tate was still a member of the lions, Kenny had 44 targets over 7 games. After Tate was gone, Kenny saw 75 targets over the last 8 games of the season. (he didn't play in Week 17). Fantasy is all about opportunity and Kenny G will have plenty of it next season. Kenny only finished as the WR21 last year and was mostly underwhelming because of his lack of TDs at 5. However, he finished 14th in yardage. This is extremely encouraging because he has the potential to reach double digit TDs with increased targets and an expanded role in 2019 which would easily make him a fringe WR1. Kenny G's ADP is at the end of the 5th round as the WR18. The value here is so tantalizing for a WR as skilled and physically gifted as Kenny.
Tevin Coleman
We all know how much Kyle Shanahan loves his running backs. Now he gets to be reunited with Tevin who flourished in his system in 2016 which was his last year as Offensive Coordinator of the Falcons. Without starting one game all season, Coleman rushed for 520 yards on 118 attempts and 8 TDs in 2016. He also racked up 420 yards and 3 TDs through the air with a catch rate of 77.5% and 10.5 yards per target which was good for 5th in league and 2nd out of all running backs just behind Spencer Ware. This shows that Tevin was extremely efficient and effective with the limited opportunity he was given being behind Devonta Freeman. The 49ers backfield may seem crowded but McKinnon and Breida are both banged up and coming off injuries while Tevin is healthy and ready to rumble. Also, at 6'1" 210 lbs Coleman has the frame to be the most durable and effective three down back. Competition for touches will heat up once Mckinnon and Breida are back to full strength but I still like Coleman as the top RB in Shanahan's offense. With the additions of Kwon Alexander, Dee Ford, and rookie Nick Bosa to an already young and talented defense, game script should be favourable for the run more often than not for this up-and-coming 49ers squad. Now for the best part. Coleman's ADP is at the end of the 6th round as the RB27. This is just silly for a guy who finished as the RB18 last year and is now in a better system that he has already flourished in. If you can get him at his ADP, Coleman is a guy who could lead you to a championship.
Mark Ingram
The Ravens love to run the football. This is one reason why I love Mark Ingram going into the 2019 season. In 2018 the Ravens lead the NFL in attempts at a staggering 547 and were 2nd in rushing yards and 3rd in rushing TDs. Lamar Jackson played a big part in why these numbers were so high but the Ravens still achieved these numbers with a rotation of average running backs which included Alex Collins, Gus Edwards, Kenneth Dixon, and Buck Allen. This season they get to plug in the former Heisman trophy winner into a featured role which will be beneficial for everybody. The Ravens want to run the football and play defense year after year which is why I have to include some stats on how good the Ravens defense was last year. I have to mention again how crucial it is for a team to have a lockdown defense if they want to be successful and consistent in running the football. Now this isn't always the case because we saw the Chiefs running backs in Kareem Hunt and Damien Williams excel from a fantasy standpoint with a defense that was terrible all season long. However, most of Williams and Hunt success was attributed to catching the ball out of the backfield with limited rushing yards and attempts. The Ravens were 1st in total defense allowing only 292.9 yards per game. (5th in passing yards allowed per game and 4th in rushing yards allowed per game) When a team has a lockdown defense it allows the offense to get better field position more often which equates to more redzone visits and rushing TDs. Also they will have positive game script where they can find themselves leading in the 2nd half which will result in more rushing attempts to run the clock out. Ingram is perfect for this role because of his compact and powerful 215 pound frame. Ingram still finished with 815 yards from scrimmage and 7 TDs despite missing 4 games due to suspension and essentially being the backup to Alvin Kamara all season. Ingram's ADP is right near the end of the 4th round as the RB22. I believe he will easily be a top 20 running back this season and blow away his ADP right now. If Ingram falls to you anywhere in the 4th round snatch him up. You won't be disappointed.