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Winter only felt like it lasted a couples years but it's finally starting to feel like spring has arrived. And now we are experiencing unprecedented times and have been thrusted into a state of dystopia with no real end in sight. Nevertheless, the National Football League is seemingly continuing with a modified version of the draft and we just witnessed one of the craziest free agency periods in NFL history. Let's just hope the NFL season will be able to start on time with no interruptions.
I wanted to conduct the research needed to write this article in order to gain a better understanding on where you can find the most value drafting each position. Now I get it, every year is different and every fantasy draft is different. Also, every draft is unpredictable and you can't just come into it with a solidified plan and expect to execute it perfectly. However, I just wanted to use a big enough sample size to just see which positions and types of players get over-drafted and which ones get under-drafted. I used the average draft position and fantasy finishes data from fantasydata.com and fantasyfootballcalculator.com. The data is based on a 12 team PPR scoring. I also used a top 10 ranking system even though the ADP is based on a 12 team league. Top 10 is just a nicer range than top 12.
Let us dive in
Quarterbacks
2015 QBs who had an ADP as a top 10 QB and finished the year as a top 10 QB
(4/10) 40% Positional
Finish Round Drafted ADP Rank
2. Tom Brady (6th) 6th
3. Russell Wilson (6th) 7th
6. Drew Brees (5th) 4th
7. Aaron Rodgers (3rd) 2nd
2015 QBs who had an ADP outside of the top 10 and finished the year in the top 10
1. Cam Newton (10th) 15th
4. Blake Bortles (Undrafted)
5. Carson Palmer (11th) 17th
8. Kirk Cousins (Undrafted)
9. Matthew Stafford (8th) 12th
10. Eli Manning (9th) 13th
2016 Top 10 ADP + Top 10 finish
(5/10) 50%
1. Aaron Rodgers (4th) 2nd
3. Drew Brees (6th) 5th
4. Andrew Luck (5th) 4th
8. Blake Bortles (8th) 9th
10. Russell Wilson (5th) 3rd
2016 Outside Top 10 ADP + Top 10 finish
2. Matt Ryan (13th) 20th
5. Kirk Cousins (10th) 13th
6. Dak Prescott (13th) 19th
7. Matthew Stafford (10th) 15th
9. Tyrod Taylor (10th) 14th
2017 Top 10 ADP + Top 10 finish
(5/10) 50%
1. Russell Wilson (6th) 5th
2. Cam Newton (8th) 10th
3. Tom Brady (3rd) 2nd
6. Kirk Cousins (8th) 9th
9. Drew Brees (4th) 3rd
2017 Outside Top 10 ADP + Top 10 finish
4. Alex Smith (Undrafted)
5. Carson Wentz (11th) 17th
7. Matthew Stafford (10th) 15th
8. Phillip Rivers (10th) 13th
10. Ben Roethlisberger (9th) 12th
2018 Top 10 ADP + Top 10 finish
(5/10) 50%
4. Deshaun Watson (4th) 2nd
5. Andrew Luck (8th) 9th
6. Aaron Rodgers (3rd) 1st
8. Drew Brees (6th) 5th
9. Russell Wilson (6th) 4th
2018 Outside Top 10 ADP + Top 10 finish
1. Patrick Mahomes (10th) 15th
2. Matt Ryan (9th) 13th
3. Ben Roethlisberger (10th) 14th
7. Jared Goff (11th) 16th
10. Dak Prescott (14th) 23rd
2019 Top 10 ADP + Top 10 finish
(5/10) 50%
3. Russell Wilson (8th) 9th
4. Deshaun Watson (4th) 2nd
7. Pat Mahomes (2nd) 1st
9. Aaron Rodgers (5th) 3rd
10. Carson Wentz (7th) 7th
2019 Outside Top 10 ADP + Top 10 finish
1. Lamar Jackson (9th) 11th
2. Dak Prescott (11th) 17th
5. Jameis Winston (9th) 12th
6. Josh Allen (13th) 20th
8. Kyler Murray (10th) 14th
Key Takeaways:
- 48% of the time a Top 10 ADP QB finished the year in the Top 10
- Consistency. 4 of the past 5 years 5 QBs are drafted and finish in the top 10
- An Undrafted player has finished in the top 10 3 times and it has been a different player each time
- 3 out of the past 5 years, the number 1 QB was drafted outside of the top 10. Newton 15th in 2015, Mahomes 15th in 2018, and Jackson 11th in 2019.
- Interestingly enough also 3 out of the past 5 years the number 2 QB was drafted outside the top 10. Matt Ryan 20th in 2016, Matt Ryan 13th in 2018, Dak Prescott 17th in 2019
- Only 11 different QBs have had a top 10 ADP + top 10 finish over the past 5 years. Out of the 24 total times it has been done.
- 17 times a QB who was drafted in the double digit rounds finished in the top 10. 3 of those times were Dak Prescott. Absolutely undervalued every time. Matthew Stafford almost did it 3 times as-well but was drafted in the 8th round in 2015.
- Russell Wilson has been drafted and finished as a top 10 QB every year
- On average, the QB1 on the year has been drafted in the back half of the 7th round (7.8) and has been drafted as the 10th (9.6) QB off the board
- New QB1 finisher every year
-The 1st QB off the board has never finished the year 1st and in 2015, 2016, and 2017, never even finished in the top 10. That's insane.
Accuracy of ADP with top 10 finish + ADP players
- 2015: 2 finished higher than ADP 2 finished lower than ADP with a net of +1
- 2016: 3 higher 1 same 1 lower net of -3
- 2017: 3 higher 2 lower net of +8
- 2018: 1 higher 4 lower net of -11
- 2019: 1 higher 4 lower net of -11
combined net = -16 (by far the worst out of the 4 positions)
same: 1
higher: 10
lower: 13
Running Backs
2015 RBs who had an ADP of a top 10 RB and finished the year as a top 10 RB
(2/10) 20% Positional
Finish Round Drafted ADP Rank
2. Adrian Peterson (1st) 1st
7. Matt Forte (2nd) 7th
2015 RBs who had an ADP outside of the top 10 and finished the year in the top 10
1. Devonta Freeman (8th) 40th
3. Danny Woodhead (6th) 30th
4. Doug Martin (4th) 17th
5. Lamar Miller (2nd) 11th
6. DeAngelo Williams (11th) 49th
8. David Johnson (10th) 46th
9. Todd Gurley (5th) 27th
10. Latavius Murray (3rd) 15th
2016 Top 10 ADP + Top 10 finish
(5/10) 50%
1. David Johnson (1st) 1st
2. Ezekial Elliot (1st) 3rd
3. Le'Veon Bell (1st) 6th
4. Lesean McCoy (2nd) 9th
6. Devonta Freeman (2nd) 7th
2016 Outside Top 10 ADP + Top 10 finish
5. DeMarco Murray (4th) 15th
7. Melvin Gordon (5th) 21st
8. Mark Ingram (3rd) 11th
9. LeGarrette Blount (8th) 38th
10. Jordan Howard Undrafted
2017 Top 10 ADP + Top 10 finish
(4/10) 40%
2. LeVeon Bell (1st) 2nd
4. Kareem Hunt (2nd) 10th
5. Melvin Gordon (1st) 6th
7. Lesean McCoy (1st) 5th
2017 Outside Top 10 ADP + Top 10 finish
1. Todd Gurley (2nd) 11th
3. Alvin Kamara (12th) 52nd
6. Mark Ingram (5th) 25th
8. Carlos Hyde (3rd) 17th
9. Leonard Fournette (3rd) 13th
10. Christian McCarffrey (2nd) 12th
2018 Top 10 ADP + Top 10 finish
(7/10) 70%
1. Saquon Barkley (1st) 6th
2. Christian McCaffrey (2nd) 10th
3. Todd Gurley (1st) 1st
4. Alvin Kamara (1st) 5th
5. Ezekiel Elliot (1st) 4th
8. Melvin Gordon (1st) 7th
9. David Johnson (1st) 2nd
2018 Outside Top 10 ADP + Top 10 finish
6. James Connor (14th) 56th
7. James White (9th) 42nd
10. Joe Mixon (2nd) 14th
2019 Top 10 ADP + Top 10 finish
(6/10) 60%
1. Christian McCaffrey (1st) 3rd
3. Ezekiel Elliot (1st) 4th
6. Dalvin Cook (2nd) 9th
8. Nick Chubb (1st) 8th
9. Alvin Kamara (1st) 2nd
10. Saquon Barkely (1st) 1st
2019 Outside Top 10 ADP + Top 10 finish
2. Aaron Jones (3rd) 16th
4. Austin Ekeler (6th) 30th
5. Derrick Henry (4th) 23rd
7. Leonard Fournette (2nd) 12th
Key Takeaways:
- 48% of the time a Top 10 ADP RB finished the year in the top 10
- Big time variance over the years. From 20% in 2015 to 70% in 2018. Why?
RBs have a very short shelf life which increases the variability when predicting a top 10 each year. Every year is seems like players that were once very relevant are all of a sudden completely forgotten and new/unknown players break onto the scene.
-2015 was an outlier year by far. Le'Veon, Marshawn, Forsett and Charles all suffered injuries and missed a significant chunk of games and Lacy, Anderson, Murray, and Hill all decided to be busts at the same time. Those were 8 of the top 10 RBs drafted
- Only one undrafted player has finished in the top 10 over the past 5 years. My good friend Jordan Howard...
- 3 times a RB was drafted outside of the top 10 and finished as a top 2 RB. Devonta Freeman 40th in 2015, Todd Gurley 11th in 2017, and Aaron Jones 16th in 2019. Every odd year...hmmmm
- 15 different RBs have had a top 10 ADP + top 10 finish over the past 5 years. Out of the 24 total times it has been done.
- 4 times a RB has been drafted in the double digit rounds and finished in the top 10. Different RB every time.
- On average, the RB1 on the year has been drafted in the middle of the second round (2.6) and has been drafted as the 12th RB (12.2) off the board
- Remove 2015 stats. RB1 is drafted in the 1st round (1.25) and the 5th RB (5.25) off the board.
- New RB1 finisher every year
Accuracy of ADP with top 10 finish + ADP players
- 2015: 1 lower 1 same net of -1
-2016: 1 same 4 higher net of +10
-2017: 2 higher 1 same 1 lower net of +5
-2018: 3 higher 4 lower net of +3
-2019: 3 higher 2 lower 1 same net of -10
combined net = +7
same: 4
higher: 12
lower: 8
Wide Receivers
2015 WRs who had a Top 10 ADP and finished the year in the top 10
4/10 40% Positional
Finish Round Drafted ADP Rank
1. Antonio Brown (1st ) 1st
2. Julio Jones (1st) 2nd
5. Odell Beckham Jr. (1st) 5th
8. AJ Green (2nd) 8th
2015 WRs who had an ADP outside of the top 10 and finished the year in the top 10
3. Brandon Marshall (5th) 24th
4. DeAndre Hopkins (3rd) 13th
6. Allen Robinson (5th) 25th
7. Larry Fitzgerald (7th) 34th
9. Jarvis Landry (4th) 17th
10. Doug Baldwin (13th) 60th
2016 Top 10 ADP + Top 10 finish
(4/10) 40%
1. Antonio Brown (1st) 1st
3. Mike Evans (2nd) 9th
4. Odell Beckham Jr. (1st) 3rd
6. Julio Jones (1st) 2nd
2016 Outside Top 10 ADP + Top 10 finish
2. Jordy Nelson (2nd) 11th
5. TY Hilton (3rd) 17th
7. Michael Thomas (10th) 49th
8. Doug Baldwin (5th) 26th
9. Davante Adams Undrafted
10. Brandin Cooks (2nd) 14th
2017 Top 10 ADP + Top 10 finish
(4/10) 40%
1. Antonio Brown (1st) 1st
6. Michael Thomas (2nd) 7th
7. Julio Jones (1st) 2nd
10. AJ Green (1st) 5th
2017 Outside Top 10 ADP + Top 10 finish
2. DeAndre Hopkins (3rd) 15th
3. Keenan Allen (3rd) 12th
4. Larry Fitzgerald (4th) 24th
5. Jarvis Landry (6th) 29th
8. Adam Thielen (9th) 42nd
9. Tyreek Hill (4th) 22nd
2018 Top 10 ADP + Top 10 finish
(7/10) 70%
1. DeAndre Hopkins (1st) 2nd
2. Davante Adams (2nd) 7th
3. Tyreek Hill (2nd) 9th
4. Julio Jones (2nd) 4th
5. Antonio Brown (1st) 1st
6. Michael Thomas (2nd) 5th
9. Mike Evans (3rd) 10th
2018 Outside Top 10 ADP + Top 10 finish
7. Adam Thielen (3rd) 14th
8. JuJu Smith-Schuster (4th) 18th
10. Stefon Diggs (3rd) 11th
2019 Top 10 ADP + Top 10 finish
(3/10) 30%
1. Michael Thomas (1st) 4th
3. Julio Jones (1st) 3rd
5. DeAndre Hopkins (1st) 2nd
2019 Outside Top 10 ADP + Top 10 finish
2. Chris Godwin (4th) 16th
4. Cooper Kupp (4th) 19th
6. Keenan Allen (3rd) 11th
7. Julian Edelman (3rd) 14th
8. Allen Robinson (7th) 32nd
9. Kenny Golladay (4th) 20th
10. Amari Cooper (3rd) 13th
Key Takeaways:
- 44% of the time a Top 10 ADP WR finished the year in the top 10. Lowest % out of the 4 positions
- Similar variance to RBs. Range of 30% to 70%. Generally WRs play longer than RBs but can also fall off a cliff statically at any point as they age. Also, every year there are a couple really young WRs that breakout out of nowhere. This creates alot of unpredictable outcomes
- Only 1 undrafted player had made a top 10. Davante Adams
- 3 out of the past 5 years, the WR2 on the year was drafted outside of the top 10. Jordy Nelson 11th in 2016, DeAndre Hopkins 15th in 2017, and Chris Godwin 16th in 2019.
- Only 9 different WRs have had a Top 10 ADP + Top 10 finish over the past 5 years. Out of the 22 total times it has been done. Similar names keep popping up year after year. Lowest ratio out of the 4 positions 9/22. Shows that you can only trust a few guys.
- Julio Jones is one of those guys. He has finished top 10 every year since 2015 with finishes of 2,6,7,4,3.
- On average the WR1 on the year has been drafted in the 1st round (1.0) and the 2nd WR (1.8) off the board. Shows consistency at the very top . AB is to thank for this which leads to the next point.
- Antonio Brown was not only drafted but also finished as the WR1 3 years in a row from 2015 -2017. Incredible run and I miss watching him play already
- 2015 was crazy for WRs too. The 4 WRs who were both top 10 ADP and finish all lived up exactly to where they were drafted. The odds of that ever happening again and so incredibly rare. Only the very very elite WRs can be trusted
Accuracy of ADP with top 10 finish + ADP players
- 2015: 4 same net of 0
- 2016: 1 same 1 higher 2 lower net of +1
- 2017: 1 same 1 higher 2 lower net of -9
- 2018: 1 same 4 higher 2 lower net of +8
- 2019: 1 same 1 higher 1 lower net of 0
combined net = 0...wow
same: 8
higher: 7
lower: 7
Tight Ends
2015 TEs who had an ADP of a top 10 TE and finished the year as a top 10
6/10 60% Positional
Finish Round Drafted ADP Rank
1. Rob Gronkowski (1st) 1st
2. Delanie Walker (9th) 10th
5. Greg Olsen (4th) 3rd
6. Tyler Eifert (8th) 9th
8. Travis Kelce (5th) 4th
10. Jason Witten (7th) 7th
2015 TEs who had an ADP outside of the top 10 and finished the year as a top 10
3. Jordan Reed (14th) 19th
4. Gary Barnidge Undrafted
7. Benjamin Watson Undrafted
9. Zach Ertz (11th) 12th
2016 Top 10 ADP + Top 10 finish
(5/10) 50%
1. Travis Kelce (6th) 5th
3. Greg Olsen (4th) 3rd
5. Delanie Walker (6th) 4th
6. Zach Ertz (8th) 8th
9. Jordan Reed (3rd) 2nd
2016 Outside Top 10 ADP + Top 10 finish
2. Kyle Rudolph Undrafted
4. Jimmy Graham (12th) 15th
7. Cameron Brate Undrafted
8. Dennis Pitta Undrafted
10. Martellus Bennett (10th) 12th
2017 Top 10 ADP + Top 10 finish
(6/10) 60%
1. Travis Kelce (4th) 2nd
2. Rob Gronkowski (2nd) 1st
3. Zach Ertz (7th) 7th
4. Delanie Walker (7th) 8th
6. Jimmy Graham (5th) 5th
8. Kyle Rudolph (7th) 9th
2017 Outside Top 10 ADP + Top 10 finish
5. Evan Engram Undrafted
7. Jack Doyle (12th) 13th
9. Jason Witten (13th) 15th
10. Cameron Brate Undrafted
2018 Top 10 ADP + Top 10 finish
(4/10) 40%
1. Travis Kelce (3th) 2nd
2. Zach Ertz (4th) 3rd
7. Kyle Rudolph (7th) 8th
8. Trey Burton (6th) 6th
2018 Outside Top 10 ADP + Top 10 finish
3. George Kittle (12th) 13th
4. Eric Ebron (13th) 18th
5. Jared Cook Undrafted
6. Austin Hooper (13th) 16th
9. David Njoku (9th) 11th
10. Vance McDonald Undrafted
2019 Top 10 ADP + Top 10 finish
(6/10) 60%
1. Travis Kelce (2nd) 1st
2. George Kittle (3rd) 2nd
4. Zach Ertz (3rd) 3rd
6. Austin Hooper (8th) 10th
7. Jared Cook (6th) 7th
9. Hunter Henry (6th) 6th
2019 Outside Top 10 ADP + Top 10 finish
3. Darren Waller (13th) 18th
5. Mark Andrews (12th) 14th
8. Tyler Higbee Undrafted
10. Dallas Goedert Undrafted
Key Takeaways:
- 54% of the time a top 10 ADP TE finished the year in the top 10. Highest % of all positions.
- A staggering 11 undrafted TEs have made a top 10 in the past 5 years. At least 2 made it every year. In other words, 22% of the time an undrafted TE has finished in the top 10.
- Highest ADP percentage accuracy while having by far the highest amount of undrafted top 10 finishers. Interesting contradiction due to the fact that outside of the top TEs, literally almost anyone can be a surprise and finish in the top 10
- Only 1 top 2 finisher in the past 5 years was drafted outside of the top 10. Kyle Rudolph in 2016 went undrafted. If you pay up for top tier TE, they have shown to live up to their ADP
- 15 different TEs have had a top 10 ADP + top 10 finish in the past 5 years. Out of the 27 total times it has been done.
- 11 times a TE has been drafted in the double digit rounds and finished the year as a top 10 TE. Different TE every time
- Travis Kelce is automatic. 4 straight seasons of finishing as the TE1. Absolutely incredible.
- On average the TE1 on the year has been drafted at the beginning of the 3rd round (3.2) and the 2nd TE (2.2) off the board
Accuracy of ADP with top 10 finish + ADP players
- 2015: 1 same 3 lower 2 higher net of +2
- 2016: 1 same 2 lower 2 higher net of -2
- 2017: 2 lower 4 higher net of + 8
- 2018: 1 lower 3 higher net of +1
- 2019: 3 same 2 lower 1 higher net of 0
combined net = +9
Same: 5
Higher: 12
Lower: 10
Bonus Stats! Comparing the number 1 and number 10 finishers at each position
2015
QB1: 389 QB10: 288 Diff= 101
RB1: 316 RB10: 205 Diff = 111
WR1: 382 WR 10: 269 Diff = 113
TE 1: 256 TE 10: 164 Diff= 92
2016
QB1: 380 QB 10: 270 Diff = 110
RB1: 408 RB10: 230 Diff= 178
WR1: 307 WR10: 246 Diff= 61
TE1: 223 TE10: 168 Diff= 55
2017
QB1: 348 QB10: 261 Diff= 87
RB1: 383 RB10: 229 Diff= 154
WR1: 310 WR10: 227 Diff= 83
TE1: 234 TE10: 143 Diff= 91
2018
QB1: 417 QB10: 286 Diff= 131
RB1: 386 RB10: 243 Diff= 143
WR1: 334 WR10: 266 Diff= 68
TE1: 295 TE10: 133 Diff= 162
2019
QB1: 416 QB10: 276 Diff= 140
RB1: 471 RB10: 244 Diff= 227
WR1: 375 WR10: 247 Diff= 128
TE1: 254 TE10: 145 Diff= 109
Combined QB difference = 569
Combined RB difference = 813
Combined WR difference = 453
Combined TE difference = 509
The RB1 blows away the competition by at least 100 every year
Remove 2015 (outlier year)
QB = 468
RB = 702
WR = 340
TE = 417
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